• Project Description

    The CRISADMIN tool will be able to evaluate the impact of large catastrophic events and/or terrorist attacks on critical infrastructures. It will form a decision support system, used to experiment and analyse the interdependencies between critical infrastructures and the modalities through which they are affected by predictable and unpredictable catastrophic events (terrorist attacks, natural and industrial disasters). The model will assess the risks and possible impacts of critical events on quality of life by identifying factors that trigger and enhance the domino effect between the interdependent critical infrastructures and the social system. The tool will also be used to investigate the risks and impact of possible intervention countermeasures and prevention policies. By simulating the effects of particular policies, the model will be able to balance the dynamics of the social system, thus providing decision makers with a tool to understand, evaluate and update already implemented process and procedures for crisis management. Download the CRISADMIN project description

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  • WP1 - Theoretical Model

    The WP aims to define a system model able to describe the social context in which critical events could occur. In particular, it will formalize the socio-economic context, in which civil protection operators act to restore the balance of the social balance, if altered by critical events. Furthermore, the WP will identify the levers used by civil protection operators to mitigate the deterioration of the social balance due to a critical event. In addition to a detailed description of the model, the parameters, the variables and the relationships (CCC) to quantitatively assess the negative effects on social context caused by such events in the social system will also be identified. This WP has...

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  • WP2 - Data collection and harvesting

    In this WP, the analysis will aim at identifying the characteristics of the past critical events, with particular reference to the effects of the crisis and the effects of the response activities by the involved actors. A detailed analysis of these elements will provide a fundamental basis for the structuring of the theoretical model and, moreover, of its validation and testing. In particular, in this Work Package the research will identify the following elements, among others: Damages to people and goods Resources employed in the response Effects of the response activities Lessons learned and best practices. One of the main goal of this Work Package is the construction of a wide...

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  • WP3 - Dynamic Model Development & Validation

    This Work Package aims at the following objectives: to define a qualitative model by investigating the relationships among the various parts of the system, to develop a reference model for the behavior of the system, based both on historical data and process analysis, to build a quantitative Stock & Flow model and to generate a computer simulation model which provides an “experimental laboratory”, to develop a theory of system behaviors due to the implementation of several policies (no prevention or intervention – that is free evolution of the impacts on a system which does not take into account the Domino Effect problem, prevention, intervention, as described in the following WPs), to...

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  • WP4 - Policy assessment prototype design and development

    The objectives of this WP are to embed the previously implemented System Dynamics model into a Decision Support System (DSS) prototype, which will be used in order to assess the various identified policies and scenarios as well as to devise new scenarios and alternative hypotheses. This will be performed mainly by the identification and implementation into the DSS of both prevention and intervention policies, previously investigated partly in WP3, so to be able to deliver a final DSS which will be delivered for experimentation to some of the stakeholders of the project, and that will be used to perform the so-called “what-if analysis”. The objective of this WP is to develop the laboratory which...

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  • WP5 - Identification of social system variables for crisis reaction and management effectiveness

    The aim of this WP is to support the model development with expertise on human behaviour in crisis situations. The behaviour and decisions of human actors in crisis situations are complex and not always rational. Realistic modelling thus requires the integration of psychological and organizational knowledge of such human factors to achieve a realistic picture of crisis reactions on which to base decisions on crisis preparation and management. The objectives of this WP are: to inform the simulation based on psychological theories and models of crisis management, crisis communication,...

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  • WP6 - Dissemination and Exploitation

    The Project partners will set up a dissemination plan, in order to promote the research activities of the CRISADMIN project at a European level, taking into account the content of the collected information and of the achieved project results. The dissemination plan has the following main goals: Stress the importance of a emergency simulation system both in the preparedness and in the response phase. Raise awareness amongst target groups with respect to project activities, outputs and benefits arising from the Project. Promote the project results and deliverables. Collect suggestions and feedbacks from European actors and responders on the project results. Encourage the use of modeling...

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